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Inflation Ticks Up in July, Driven by Spending on Services_我的网站
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Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. That was in line with estimates.
The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Last month, the annual rate of increase was 3% and 4.1%.
Other data in the release showed spending and income up.
“Condition of the American consumer remains rock solid,” RSM US LLP Principal & Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on X, formerly Twitter. He noted that spending was up 0.8%, inflation-adjusted spending was up 0.6% and 2.8% on a three-month annualized pace – placing some risk on the company’s 2.1% forecast for gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. He also pointed out that income was up 0.2%, while wages, salaries and compensation were up 0.4%.”
While the PCE number is perhaps higher than the Fed would like, Chairman Jerome Powell said in his recent speech at the central bank’s summer symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, noted that “on a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July.”
But he also cautioned that the path to the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target will require that interest rates remain high for some time to come.
“Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role,” Powell said. “Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.”
Markets seem unfazed by the messaging. In recent days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on an upward run and is positioned to open up 150 points at the opening.
“Headlines touting a soft landing are increasing, the consensus seems to be that a soft landing is the most likely scenario, this seems like a unicorn scenario, but mixed economic data makes predicting a recession difficult,” said Shana Orczyk Sissel, CEO and founder of Banrion Capital Management. “We see clear signs of broad economic weakness, but inflation is falling, employment is strong, and the consumer is spending, so it's hard to really see a recession occurring this year.”
Many economists have pointed out that getting inflation down to the 3% range from the 9% of last summer, while an accomplishment, will prove easier than wringing the last 1% out.
“While signs point to a continued slowdown in inflation over time, certain categories give us pause as we close out 2023 and head into 2024,” said Joe Davis, chief global economist at Vanguard. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”
“Our baseline trajectory anticipates a gradual decline in the pace of inflation with core PCE staying well above 3% through YE 2023 and remaining slightly above 2% by YE 2024,” Davis added.
。 美国国债收益率整体波动不大，投资者静待美联储偏好的通胀指标公布。 美国东部时间凌晨 4 点，作为抵押贷款、汽车贷款、信用卡债务关键基准的10 年期美债收益率几乎持平，报 4.647%。
二 | 期限更长的30 年期美债收益率同样走平，报 5.181%；2 年期美债收益率维持在 4.199% 不变。术语说明：1 个基点等于 0.01%；债券收益率与债券价格呈反向变动。 部分美债实时行情：10 年期美债：4.645%（+0.006）1 个月美债：3.71%（+0.009）1 年期美债：4.03%（+0.023）2 年期美债：4.201%（‑0.003）30 年期美债：5.179%（+0.005）3 个月美债：3.805%（+0.007）6 个月美债：3.915%（+0.003） 7 月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数—— 美联储最看重的通胀衡量指标，将于周三上午 8：30（美东时间）发布，同时公布的还有美国第二季度 GDP 预估数据。
三 | 本周债券市场同时密切关注中东局势进展，以及即将召开的美联储杰克逊霍尔全球央行研讨会。 受伊朗与阿曼有望达成霍尔木兹海峡安全通航协议消息影响，今年一度飙升、引发通胀担忧并推高全球债券收益率的油价，于周二延续跌势。国际基准布伦特原油期货下跌 2.8%，报每桶 86.08 美元；美国 WTI 原油下跌 3%，报每桶 79.93 美元。 投资者将关注周四开幕的杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会，从中寻找美国货币政策走向与通胀预期的线索。美联储主席凯文・沃什将于周五在该会议发表演讲。责任编辑：郭明煜。
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